4:30 PM CST | March 10, 2019
Northwest/North Texas is once again on the chilly side with cloudy skies. Showers will be off/on leading up to the main event late Tuesday-Wednesday. Let me step through what to expect over the next 72 hours. More showers and a few storms are expected to develop overnight and into early Wednesday. The greatest coverage will be along/north of I-20. Those who see rain will range from a trace to locally over .50" through daybreak. This is a loop from one of this afternoon's weather models. This is what it is suggesting from sunset this evening through sunrise tomorrow. No severe weather is expected - mostly just garden-variety showers with some rumbles of thunder.
More of the same tomorrow. Warmest temperatures will be in the south and southeast. Houston is expected to see a high near 80*F Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, places like Waco, Dallas, and Tyler will top out in the mid-50*F's. It will be even cooler farther west and northwest, where Lubbock and Childress are expected to only reach the upper-40*F's. CHILLY... Moisture begins to return northward by Tuesday. The northward advancement of the deeper moisture (60*F dew points) will have an impact on the severe potential late Tuesday-Wednesday. For West Texas, the greatest rain and thunderstorm chances appear to be Tuesday evening into the early overnight hours. Across the heart of the state, the best storm chances will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. For Eastern Texas, storm chances will peak mid-morning through the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Some adjustments can be expected between now and then.
There will be the potential for both localized flooding and severe weather with this system. The primary severe risk appears to be damaging winds followed by hail and isolated tornadoes. Strong storms will develop in West Texas late Tuesday afternoon. This activity should form into a squall line by mid to late evening as it marches eastward. Forecast wind fields and shear will support organized thunderstorms; however, instability appears marginal at this time. This is the one factor that argues against a more significant risk at this time. Nonetheless, I do expect at least some severe storms across the state from late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. This is most likely to occur where the 60*F dew points reside. Most of the model guidance lifts this deeper moisture through the Red River Valley and into Oklahoma by Tuesday night, but there are a couple weather models that confine the deeper moisture to the I-20 corridor and points south.
The timing and hazards with this next system will be refined over the next couple of days. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.