Storm Chances Increase Friday Night Into Saturday

4:30 PM CST | March 7, 2019

Our next weather system can be seen on satellite this afternoon. It is approaching the West Coast and will move onshore California by early evening. This evening's weather models will have better data available than previous runs, so I will watch for any subtle changes. In the meantime, let's discuss what we know right now...

RAP Mesoanalysis 500mb Vorticity Water Vapor March 7, 2019

Southerly flow in advance of our system is lifting gulf moisture back into the state. The dew point at DFW has risen to 53*F with 60*F dew points as far north as Huntsville and College Station. Later this evening and overnight, we will see a cool front push through Northwestern Texas before stalling just north and west of Dallas-Fort Worth Friday morning. The warmest temperatures Friday afternoon will pool just south of the wind shift. You can see what one of this afternoon's models suggests at 3:00 PM tomorrow. It could be a bit farther north or south, but you get the idea. This boundary will wash out by evening, allowing the deeper moisture to advance northward into the Red River Valley.

NAM Model Temperatures Valid 3:00 PM March 8, 2019

There is a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow night across parts of North/Northeast Texas. This is primarily for quarter-size hail followed by damaging winds. The data suggests that storms may remain elevated just above the surface until after daybreak Saturday. This is good news as it means that the tornado risk Friday night appears very low, despite quite a bit of "spin" in our atmosphere. On Saturday, there is a slight risk of severe weather for Northeast Texas with a marginal risk farther south and west. There will be the potential for quarter to half dollar-size hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two before storms push east of the state late Saturday afternoon. While I do not anticipate widespread severe weather, a few severe storms can be expected in the Friday night-Saturday afternoon time-frame. If you live in or near the risk areas, make sure you have a way to get the latest warning information in case a severe storm impacts your area. A weather radio is the best way to receive this information from the National Weather Service. I have attached a video showing the severe weather outlook and rain chances for both Friday night and Saturday.

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