11:15 PM CDT | March 23, 2019
First off, we had a conditional risk of severe weather across North Texas today. Daytime heating was strong enough for storms to initiate off the dryline in western North Texas, near Abilene. This activity tracked eastward, but as it moved into the Mineral Wells/Jacksboro areas, it became less organized. No coincidence, temperatures were cooler farther east due to (1) more widespread cloud cover during the day and (2) the loss of daytime heating. The final storm weakened to a shower outside Bridgeport after sunset. No severe weather was reported in North Texas. Unfortunately, this was not the case for our neighbors to the north. The Oklahoma City metro saw up to egg-size hail (2.00"), which is larger than golf balls. The city of Edmond on the northern side of the metro received significant amounts of hail. I shared a picture of this on the Facebook page this evening. What does tomorrow look like? Let me step through it really quickly.
Most of the day will be quiet with only a slight chance for storms during the afternoon. The dryline will mix eastward toward Dallas-Fort Worth by late afternoon; however, it should stall immediately west of the airport. To the north, a cool front will be pushing southward and begin overtaking the dryline. I anticipate widely scattered storms to develop by early evening. Storm chances for the immediate DFW metro will increase to 30 or 40% by Sunday evening. Storm chances will be even greater, 50-60%, for places farther east like Paris, Texarkana, Emory, etc. The environment will support a few storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. Storm motion will be toward the east and southeast. This is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They will update again by 1:00 AM, which you can view via their website.
After tomorrow night, we will quiet down for several days. I expect another system by late next week. This is the one I began discussing last weekend. The weather models differ in their solutions, but the majority agree that the region will see more moisture again. This system is also likely to drag some colder air into the Southern Plains, so temperatures could very well fall below normal for a bit. After we get through tomorrow's storms and take a breather, I will begin discussing the following system in more detail by Wednesday. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.