5:00 PM CST | March 5, 2019
The weather over the next few days will be pretty quiet. The changes start on Friday as an upper-level system approaches from the west. Southerly flow sets up tomorrow which will bring moisture and warmer temperatures back to the state. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday. By early evening, however, a cold front will begin moving southward into the northeast Texas Panhandle. I have attached a graphic from one of this afternoon's weather models below. This is what it is suggesting by 6:00 PM Thursday. It gives you a general idea of what we could see. This front will continue southward Thursday night.
With the main system still to our west, I anticipate this boundary stalling north of I-20 Friday morning before lifting back toward the north. If this is indeed the case, it should have no impact on the moisture return. The coolest temperatures on Friday will be in Northwest Texas where highs will probably be around 60*F. This is because, while the front should lift back toward the north, it will still limit/delay the heating. High temperatures will be in the 70*F's and even 80*F's farther south.
Showers and storms are forecast to break out across Northwest/West Central Texas Friday night. This activity will increase in coverage and strength as it tracks east and northeast through Saturday. Some severe storms are possible during this period, particularly on Saturday. The area with the greatest risk appears to be Eastern Texas. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a risk of severe weather on Saturday. Of course, some adjustments can be expected as we get a better handle on the system and its timing.
As mentioned yesterday, this will probably not be the only opportunity for strong storms. Another system should impact the Plains next week, likely in the Tuesday to Thursday time-frame. This has the potential (1) to be stronger than its predecessor and (2) to dig farther south. This is something I have been watching for several days now and has support from the recurring cycle theory. Once we get through this upcoming system late Friday-Saturday, I will shift my focus to next week's system. At the very least, we will see an increasing chance for showers and storms again. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.