2:15 PM CDT | March 12, 2019
Good afternoon, everyone. Let me jump right into what we can expect into Wednesday morning. Our weather system can be seen on water vapor satellite as it rotates through the Southwest US and Northern Mexico. This system will swing into New Mexico by this evening and West Texas overnight. We will see scattered storms fire in Eastern New Mexico and far West Texas late this afternoon. This activity will be capable of very large hail to the size of golfballs or larger, damaging winds to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes. This activity will eventually form into a squall line across West Texas this evening. As storms become more linear in nature, the risk for large hail will gradually decrease with damaging winds becoming the primary hazard. This is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center through tonight. You can see the large Enhanced Risk for Western Texas with a Slight Risk into the Texas Panhandle and western parts of North/Central Texas. A Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight Risk.
On the weather model front, I have noticed a subtle trend with the most recent guidance. Several models are slowly increasing the instability for western North Texas overnight/early Wednesday morning. This adds some more weight to the idea of mesovortices forming along the leading edge of the squall line. For more on this, refer to the latter portion of yesterday's discussion. In that article, I have some graphics that better explain just what is a mesovortex. In short, there will be a continued risk for damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes through about daybreak. After daybreak, the model guidance shows gradual weakening of the line as it pushes east of Dallas-Fort Worth. This appears reasonable as the low-level jet starts to weaken. You can see what one of our weather models suggests from 6:00 PM this evening to 6:00 AM tomorrow morning. Please keep in mind that this is just a weather model. The radar conditions will not look EXACTLY like this; however, it does give you a general idea of what we could see.
Some adjustments to the risk areas and timing can be expected through tonight. If you live in or near the risk areas, make sure you have a way to get the latest watch and warning information from the National Weather Service. A weather radio is the best way to get this information. Not everyone who lives in the risk areas will see severe weather, but there is the potential for it. I will be posting updates on the Facebook page and group. If you have not already, be sure to LIKE the page and join the group. Storm pictures and reports are always appreciated, but ONLY take pictures when it is safe to do so. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. Last but not least, I recommend bookmarking the National Weather Service Product Feeds page. You can see the latest watches, warnings, and storm reports from local offices across the state. Just find your county and click the associated office. Please note that the feeds are not intended to be a replacement for a weather radio. Stay safe, everyone.