5:00 PM CST | March 8, 2019
If you are reading this article, you are most likely already familiar with the recurring cycle theory. If this theory is new to you, please check out the following link which gives a brief explanation of it. More articles discussing it can be found in the archives via the menu. This season's weather pattern has had a mean cycle length of about 51 days, give or take. The Tuesday-Wednesday system was foreshadowed well in advance of the traditional weather models utilizing this theory. March 4th is when I began discussing the potential for not just this round of strong storms but a second one a few days later. It can be traced ALL the way back to what we saw the second week of October. Yes, I am serious. Check out the following loop from the morning of October 8th to the morning of October 10th. I want to point out two distinct pieces of energy within the large trough. The first piece is what triggered severe storms from Texas to Wisconsin at the time. It came in negatively-tilted, which is the strongest orientation a system can have. See for yourself below.
That would be 154 days from Tuesday or 155 days from Wednesday. Divide that by 3, and you get a little more than 51 days apart. There were two other cycles that occurred between October 9th and next Tuesday-Wednesday. Each of these were spaced about the same time apart. I will show you those in a minute. I want you to first take a look at what this morning's GFS model (commonly referred to as the "American" model) shows next week. It is unbelievably similar and right on schedule. You seriously cannot make this up. We will again see the potential for severe thunderstorms with this part of the weather pattern.
The other times we saw this part of the weather pattern was November 30th-December 1st (about 52 days from the first cycle) and January 21st-22nd (51-52 days from the second cycle). You can see these second and third cycles below. You may look at January, and think "What happened?" Well, there were two distinct pieces of energy initially. Then, you will notice that the second piece weakened and was absorbed. The culprit was that HUGE low up in Canada or, more specifically, over the Hudson Bay. This is a good example how other factors can affect the evolution of these systems. Yet, we see some type of upper-level energy on schedule every time. The value with the recurring cycle theory is that you know when to watch for a possible system and have an idea of how it could take shape. Nothing is guaranteed in the world of weather, but it helps add a bit more certainty to a world made up of many uncertainties. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed today's discussion on the recurring cycle. Check the blog daily and also the Facebook page for the latest weather updates!