Hail & Wind Risk Late Saturday For Northwest Texas

8:00 PM CDT | April 26, 2019

QUICK UPDATE: Late Saturday afternoon and early evening, a few thunderstorms are likely to form (1) off the dryline in Northwest Texas and (2) near a frontal boundary along the Red River. A marginal risk for quarter to half dollar-size hail and damaging winds will exist, but the coverage of severe storms appears low.

Forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms will likely collapse as they move deeper into North Texas after dark. This is why DFW has only a slight chance for storms Saturday evening/night. The model guidance depicts a layer of dry air above the surface. As these isolated storms fall apart, nearby locations could see strong to severe wind gusts at the surface. Similar setups in the summer sometimes produce heat bursts.

Precipitation falling into dry air aloft will cause the air to cool through latent heat absorption. With a heat burst, however, the precipitation that cooled the air aloft has been vaporized. It can no longer absorb heat, so as the air rapidly accelerates toward the surface, it heats up. At the surface, you see strong winds, warming temperatures, and falling dew points and humidity.

I am unsure of the heat burst potential specifically given the fact that it is April. They are more common in the late spring and summer months. Nonetheless, at least strong winds will be possible Saturday evening with the collapsing activity.

For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group. I always encourage folks to share their storm reports, especially in the group. It helps others know what is going on in other parts of the state, where they may have some friends or family. Pictures of the weather are also appreciated but only when it is safe enough to do so.