8:15 PM CDT | April 11, 2019
I continue to monitor the severe weather potential this weekend. The model guidance is in good agreement on the overall evolution, but they differ in regards to the exact location of the surface features. This will play an important part in determining where the greatest risk will develop on Saturday. For this discussion, I went with the mean location of the triple point from various solutions. The graphic shows the setup by mid-afternoon on Saturday. A very favorable environment will exist to the east and southeast of the triple point. Storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes appear likely. As mentioned in yesterday's discussion, similar systems in the past have brought an enhanced risk for tornadoes to the state. It does not mean that we will necessarily see a tornado outbreak, BUT it does mean that we need to watch it closely.
All types of severe weather will be possible in the vicinity of the warm front, but the risk will decrease notably north of it, where much cooler temperatures will reside. Hail will still be possible with the strongest cells in the cold sector, which is where I have a marginal risk highlighted. This chart is not based off the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center but off what I am seeing at this time. Please keep in mind that any shift with the data north or south could mean an increasing or decreasing risk for your area. To avoid any possible confusion, I will only be posting the offical outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center starting tomorrow. If you would like to see their official outlook, you can do so at the bottom of the page.
The takeaways right now should be the following:
1. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
2. THE RISK COULD INCREASE OR DECREASE FOR YOUR AREA DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT.
3. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
4. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS.
5. MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
As mentioned above, not everyone who is at risk for severe weather will see severe weather on Saturday. The potential for it is there, however. It is much better to be prepared should a severe storm impact your location. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.