4:00 PM CDT | April 5, 2019
The first of several rounds of severe storms will soon begin in West Texas. Isolated severe storms will be possible in the next 1-2 hours across West Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns. Later this evening and overnight, more widespread activity will develop across the western part of the state. Similar threats will exist with the strongest activity. There is a slight risk of severe weather through tonight for much of West Texas. A marginal risk surrounds it and extends into the Texas Panhandle and North/Central Texas.
While a greater risk for severe weather is evident tomorrow, the "enhanced risk" area while likely be adjusted in later outlooks. This is because how tonight's activity evolves will impact the area of greatest destabilization on Saturday. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Farther down, I have attached loops from two of this afternoon's weather models. They both show the simulated radar conditions from 6:00 PM today through 6:00 PM Saturday. While they show similar scenarios, they do differ in the timing and location of the heavier activity.
Generally speaking, the heaviest activity will be concentrated along the southern/eastern flank. This is because this portion of the cluster(s) will have unimpeded access to moist, unstable air from the south. The first model would suggest a greater risk for severe weather across North/Northeast Texas as it takes the cluster on a more northerly track than the second model. We just have to wait and see how things unfold later this evening and overnight. It is uncertain whether or not more storms will develop in the wake of the initial storms. The atmosphere may be too worked over, but forecasts reflect some chance for storms Saturday evening/night to account for the possibility.
Sunday's risk for severe weather is still being refined, but the SPC has gone ahead and highlighted a slight risk for areas near/east of the I-35 corridor. Early indications suggest that a greater potential for severe weather may focus from South Central Texas through East Texas. Time will tell... The takeaway from this entire discussion should be the following:
1. Multiple rounds of severe weather are expected for the state through Sunday.
2. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts if you live in or near the risk areas.
3. Make sure you have a way to receive the latest watch and warning info.
The best way to get the latest warning info is via a weather radio. Unlike mobile devices, they are not impacted by data limits or outages. You can also visit our NWS Product Feeds to view the most recent products issued by your local office. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group. I will be posting periodic updates, so check back throughout the day!