Saturday's Severe Risk Worth Monitoring Closely

9:45 PM CDT | April 10, 2019

It was a gorgeous day across the state! A strong storm system is passing to the north of the state this evening. At the surface, there is a surface low in Kansas with a trailing dryline draped across Northwest Texas. The cold front will push through the Texas Panhandle overnight and into North Texas Thursday morning. This boundary will push all the way into Coastal Texas before stalling by Friday morning. The stalling of the boundary will be in response to yet another system.

As the second system moves into Arizona and New Mexico on Friday, we *should* see the boundary retreat northward in advance of it. How far north and west this moist, unstable air retreats is yet to be determined. For Friday night, the SPC has highlighted a marginal risk for severe weather across much of North Central Texas. Large hail appears to be the primary hazard at this time, since surface-based storms may hold off until after daybreak Saturday.

SPC Day 3 Outlook Valid Friday, April 12, 2019

The favored area for severe weather on Saturday appears to be Eastern Texas. All types of severe weather will be possible along/south of the retreating boundary with hail possible to the north of it. At the bottom of the discussion, you can see a loop from one of this evening's models. It shows the simulated surface temperatures from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM on Saturday. The main purpose of this loop is to illustrate the evolution of the retreating boundary and the surface low/triple point, not the exact location. Historically, similar systems in the past have brought an enhanced risk for tornadoes. This is not to say that this one will necessarily follow suit; BUT, it is why I will be closely monitoring it.

SPC Day 4 Outlook Valid Saturday, April 13, 2019

If you live in or near the risk areas, keep a close eye on your local forecast. Not everyone will see severe weather this weekend, but the potential does exist for the highlighted areas. One other thing to mention is the possibility for snow or rain/snow mix in the Texas Panhandle. Yep, S-N-O-W. A chilly Saturday night-Sunday morning is in store for many Texans, but temperatures will be quick to rebound. We should then see a few days of calmer weather in the wake of Saturday's system.

For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.

00z NAM 60-72 HR Surface Temperatures Valid April 11, 2019