Significant Hail Possible For Some On Wednesday

5:45 PM CDT | April 15, 2019

Moisture return is getting underway again. By Wednesday afternoon, dew points around 70*F will lift as far north as the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. As another storm system approaches the region, the stage will be set for more thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued an enhanced risk for severe weather this Wednesday for much of North/Central Texas. I have attached the latest outlook below. The brown represents a marginal risk, the yellow represents a slight ("standard") risk, the red represents an enhanced risk, and the black hatched area represents a risk for significant severe weather.

SPC Day 3 Outlook Valid Wednesday, April 17, 2019

There are some smaller but important details being worked out among the guidance. One of these differences is how far east the dryline will advance by late Wednesday afternoon. Some of the guidance shows it advancing as far east as Weatherford, while others hold it back towards Breckenridge and Eastland. There are several factors which influence how quickly a dryline mixes eastward. One of these factors is the density of the airmass ahead of it. What I mean is that, if the preceding airmass is "heavier" with ample moisture, it tends to slow drylines a bit. Evaporation from recent rainfall plays a role. The ground is pretty moist across Northwest/North Texas from the last event, so my gut feeling is that the dryline is likely to stall a couple counties west of I-35 before being overtaken by a cool front after dark. You can see below the rainfall departures (in percent) over the last 7 days.

Percentage Of Normal Rainfall Last 7 Days - April 15, 2019

The other disagreement is when storms will initiate. Mid-afternoon? Sunset? If convection waits until late in the day, the environment will be even more unstable with lots of moisture in place. The most significant risk at this time appears to be very large hail, followed by damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. All of this will be refined over the next 48 hours.

There is no reason to be anxious. Just keep an eye on the forecast and plan accordingly. The risk could increase or decrease for your area, depending on how things evolve. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.

Wednesday Afternoon & Evening Severe Weather Issued April 15, 2019