3:00 PM CDT | April 22, 2019
Good afternoon, everyone! I wanted to write a discussion on the weather over the next few days. There is a lot to talk about; however, I will try to keep things as "to-the-point" as possible. Let's look at today's risk. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather for parts of West/Northwest Texas today. The potential for severe weather will gradually increase over the next 2-3 hours. Large hail to the size of ping pong balls (1.50") and damaging winds appear to be the main hazards. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the overall risk appears low. At least a low-end/isolated severe risk will continue overnight. Heavy rainfall may lead to some localized flooding.
The risk will be focused farther south and east on Tuesday, from West Texas into North Texas. While showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across parts of the state early in the period, the severe risk will be centered in the late afternoon and evening hours. The area at greatest risk will be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The location of this boundary will be influenced by convective outflow (rain-cooled air) from earlier thunderstorms. Right now, my best guess is that this boundary will probably be situated somewhere from Bowie or Gainesville to near Abilene late in the day. The boundary will push south and east through the evening and overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns with the strongest storms, but a brief tornado or two will be possible. Localized flooding will be possible where cells track over the same areas repeatedly.
To give you a better idea of the weather over the next 24+ hours, I have attached a loop from one of this afternoon's weather models. This loop shows the simulated radar conditions from 7:00 PM today to 7:00 PM tomorrow. Please keep in mind that the radar will not look EXACTLY like this, BUT it does give you an idea of how things may unfold. The bulk of the storms could be a bit farther north, south... you get my point.
The severe risk continues Wednesday, pushing a bit more south and east with the frontal boundary. There is a slight risk across Central Texas, where confidence is greatest in a few severe storms. Wind fields will be more supportive of severe storms on Wednesday than today or tomorrow. The main uncertainty right now is what effects the earlier thunderstorm activity will have on the environment. If widespread rain and cloud cover limits instability, the risk would likely peak at "slight". If the environment is able to destabilize more, then we could see a greater, more widespread risk develop. There are too many variables at this point, though. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.