4:45 PM CDT | April 29, 2019
There is a low risk for severe weather into tonight across parts of West/Northwest Texas. This is focused in the vicinity of a frontal boundary draped across the area. The temperature at Childress is 64*F. Meanwhile, Abilene is sitting at 81*F. We will likely see a few severe reports in this part of the state, but it should not be anything widespread. Our attention then jumps to tomorrow when a risk for severe weather will develop across parts of Northwest/North Texas.
Severe potential is definitely evident on Tuesday, particularly across the slight risk area (see image below). There are a couple ways that tomorrow could unfold. One scenario is that, other than some showery activity, much of the state is quiet until late afternoon. Convection initiates near the front and dryline late in the day and tracks east and northeast. This would place the greatest emphasis on Northwest Texas and parts of western North Texas. All modes of severe weather would be possible, including very large hail.
The second scenario being depicted by a few weather models is more complex. They suggest thunderstorm activity may be ongoing in Northwest Texas Tuesday morning. These cells would reinforce said frontal boundary and perhaps leave some residual outflow boundaries in the area. Interestingly, these models also show the showery activity along the I-35 corridor becoming surface-based in the afternoon. This threat is very conditional, but if it were to verify, severe weather would be possible farther east across North Texas. Just keep an eye on the forecast and plan accordingly. Not everyone who is at risk will see storms or severe weather on Tuesday.
There is a risk for severe weather across North/Central Texas on Wednesday. A disturbance will trigger thunderstorm development from the Hill Country of West Central Texas into western North Texas. The disagreement with the models is when this happens. Some of the model guidance show it starting Wednesday morning while others hold it off until later in the day. Obviously, a greater risk for severe weather would be realized if the activity holds off. Right now, we simply do not know. I will say that, if thunderstorm activity is early and widespread across Central Texas, it would probably lower the risk for North Texans, particularly those north of the I-20 corridor. This would be the result of subsidence north of the complex and the disruption of gulf moisture to areas farther north. Regardless, an active weather day can be expected on Wednesday for portions of the state. Some localized flooding can also be expected.
We may see a lull in the action this coming weekend before another stretch of active weather next week. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group. Bookmark the NWS Product Feeds page to view the most recent products issued by your local NWS office.