Update On Tonight's Weather & Recurring Cycle Theory

5:30 PM CDT | April 27, 2019

Thunderstorms are now ongoing in West Texas, to the east of Lubbock. I have attached a recent satellite loop below. This activity will continue eastward and gradually form into a cluster or two. Some reports of large hail and damaging winds are expected from these storms. Right now, it appears that this activity will near a Wichita Falls to Graham line around 9:00 PM and the I-35 corridor around midnight. While the hail risk will decrease by mid to late evening, the possibility for damaging winds will continue into tonight. As discussed yesterday, storms will begin to fall apart as they move deeper into North Texas and approach the I-35 corridor. As storms begin collapsing, strong winds will push out from this activity. This means that strong winds will occur, even where there is little in the way of rain. It would not be a bad idea to secure any loose items outside. Next, I will be discussing the recurring cycle theory and how it relates to the next weather-maker.

Late Saturday Afternoon Texas Satellite Loop - April 27, 2019

It has been a while since I have talked about the recurring cycle theory. For those who may not be familiar with it, it is basically the following:

1. A unique weather pattern sets up in the fall, beginning in the first 10 days of October. This pattern continues to evolve for several weeks. When it begins to repeat, a preliminary cycle length is determined.

2. The same features come into play each cycle. More often than not, they behave similarily; however, seasonal differences in the jet stream, upper-level ridging, etc. does influence the development and location of these features. Even if there are more significant differences from one cycle to another, the same number of features remain.

This time around, the mean cycle length has been about 51 days - give or take a couple days. The system that will begin impacting the region early this coming week can be traced back to March 8th. Before I show you the graphics, let me point out that these systems will be 52 days apart. The first graphic shows the mid-levels of the atmosphere at 7:00 PM on March 8th. The second graphic shows what one of the weather models depicts at 7:00 PM this Monday.

500mb Analysis 00z March 9, 2019 500mb NAM Forecast Valid 00z April 30, 2019

I took the liberty of highlighting the two main features present in each cycle. All of this is occurring right on schedule. I anticipate another weather system later in the first week of May. This part of the pattern will go back to what we saw March 12-13th. You can actually view an article on this next part of the weather pattern here. Generally speaking, the first 7-8 days of May look unsettled for Texas with several opportunities for severe weather and some flooding. The details will be ironed out when we get closer. Nonetheless, the recurring cycle theory continues to prove valuable in determining when we will see weather-makers here in the Plains.

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