3:00 PM CDT | April 1, 2019
Today will be the last chilly day for a while. We start warming tomorrow with very nice temperatures in store for the rest of the forecast period. There will be some opportunities for rain over the next week. The first system will begin to impact the region late Wednesday. Personally, storm chances look "iffy" with this system. Moisture will be on the increase, and there will be ample wind shear. What's the problem? The problem lies with the fact that the cap may be stubborn. The better chance for storms across more of the state appears to be Friday into this upcoming weekend. I have created a video showing the forecast temperatures and rain chances for several cities. The data is courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Regarding the mid-week storm chances, the area where the cap is most likely to break late in the day is extreme Northwest Texas and Western Oklahoma. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. A Marginal Risk exists north of the I-20 corridor of North Texas where a conditional risk exists overnight. The environment by Wednesday night will support organized thunderstorms with an attendent risk for severe weather. The cap will determine whether this risk will be realized or not. The atmosphere can be primed, but if the cap prevents surface-based storms, it is a moot point. Unfortunately, we may not have a real idea of the cap strength until Wednesday morning. Storm chances will increase across East Texas on Thursday, where a few severe storms will be possible. Another system is being advertised by the model guidance by the end of the work week. We will have to monitor the potential for strong storms once we get closer. In the meantime, enjoy the spring temperatures!
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