5:45 PM CDT | May 27, 2019
Isolated severe storms are possible across Northwest Texas tomorrow afternoon. Wichita Falls and surrounding locations will have around a 30% chance for storms on Tuesday. Farther south and east, a 20% chance will exist for places like Bowie, Jacksboro, Decatur, Mineral Wells, and Weatherford. Any storm that develops could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. The overall tornado risk appears low due to the isolated nature of storms during the afternoon and evening.
A disturbance will move into the western part of the state Wednesday morning. This feature will probably trigger a few thunderstorms in West Central/Northwest Texas in the morning. Some of this activity may be strong, but the severe risk may hold off until closer to/after midday. There are still model differences in the timing, which will obviously impact local forecasts. Right now, let me step through the general scenario...
Activity along the southern and eastern fringes will increase in intensity as we get some daytime heating and further destabilization. Farther east along I-35, isolated showers will likely begin streaming northward. There is at least some potential for this activity to become surface-based by early afternoon. If surface-based storms are realized, they will be capable of all hazards. Meanwhile, the activity farther west will gradually build/push eastward through Northern Texas later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, as well as a couple tornadoes. At this time, the tornado risk does not appear too great, at least compared to what Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/Northwest Texas have seen recently. Localized flooding can be expected as well. All of this will be refined over the next 48 hours.
The latest outlook for Wednesday is posted below. I would not be surprised to see parts of North Texas upgraded to an enhanced risk in later outlooks, once confidence increases. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.