1:45 PM CDT | May 28, 2019
Isolated severe storms are likely in Northwest Texas later this afternoon and into this evening. This activity will likely remain to the northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls, Damaging Winds, and possibly an isolated Tornado will be the hazards with any Supercell later today. The greater risk will be north of the Red River, though. I have attached a loop from one of the most recent weather models below. It shows the simulated radar conditions from 4:00 to 10:00 PM. While the radar will not look EXACTLY as shown, it gives you an idea of what could play out.
The main concern is tomorrow, when severe weather is expected across a larger portion of the area. The Storm Prediction Center recently upgraded parts of North Texas to an enhanced risk on Wednesday. This includes the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro and points northeast. As discussed yesterday, a disturbance will swing through Texas tomorrow. Lift will increase ahead of this feature late tonight-early tomorrow morning. This should be enough for widely scattered storms across parts of West Central/Northwest Texas. This activity will track northeastward. Large Hail will be possible with the strongest cells early Wednesday.
Farther east across North/Northeast Texas, there is the potential for discrete surface-based storms ahead of the morning cluster. If surface-based storms are realized after midday, all hazards will be possible. Regardless, additional development will occur along the southern and eastern fringes of the morning activity. These cells will be capable of Large Hail ranging from the size of Quarters to Golf Balls, Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH, and isolated Tornadoes. These thunderstorms will spread east and northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There are a couple uncertainties that remain. One unknown is the presence of any morning outflow boundaries that could locally increase the Tornado Risk for parts of North Texas. Low-level wind shear will not be particularly strong, but it would be locally enhanced near any surface boundaries. Unfortunately, there is no way of predicting this... we just have to wait and see. The takeaway from this discussion is that you need to keep an eye on your local forecast and weather tomorrow. Cities in the enhanced risk include Dallas, Fort Worth, Denton, Gainesville, Arlington, Frisco, McKinney, Plano, Sherman, Garland, Wylie, Greenville, Bonham, Paris, Sulphur Springs, and many others. While not as great, a severe risk exists for other places like Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Stephenville, Waco, Tyler, and Texarkana. Make sure you have a way to get the latest watch and warning information on Wednesday. Not everyone at risk for Severe Weather WILL see Severe Weather. Consider yourself fortunate if you do not get a strong storm.
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