3:45 PM CDT | May 7, 2019
Tornado Watches are in effect across most of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas this afternoon. The most intense storms are expected to be in the panhandle, particularly from Plainview to Amarillo and points east and northeast. A couple strong tornadoes are possible, if not likely, through this evening. Activity will gradually form into line segments and eventually a squall line by late this evening. At that point, the primary risk will shift to damaging winds. In the meantime, supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (potentially strong) are expected over the next several hours. Before I get to tomorrow's weather, look at the watches and current risk area. Please note that the image is non-updating but valid as of the writing of this post.
As mentioned above, damaging winds will become the primary concern overnight as a squall line marches eastward. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will remain possible. The latter risk will be more prevalent with (1) individual cells ahead of the line or along the southern flank and (2) with any bowing segments. I do not anticipate a widespread/significant tornado risk overnight and early Wednesday, but a few brief tornadoes will be possible. I have attached a loop from one of the most recent weather models below. This is what it suggests from 7:00 PM this evening to 7:00 AM Wednesday morning. Keep in mind that this is simply a weather model - the radar will not look EXACTLY like this. The scenario depicted does have support from *most* other models, though.
The Storm Prediction Center did have an enhanced risk from North/Central Texas into Eastern Texas on Wednesday. This enhanced risk is now confined to parts of Northeast/East Central Texas tomorrow. This is where some renewed storm development is anticipated during the afternoon. Something that could increase the risk later in the day for North Texas would be if the morning activity is less extensive. Since the atmosphere would not be completely overturned, it would allow for greater destabilization during the midday and afternoon hours. There would be the potential for more explosive development later in the day. Thankfully, this scenario is the less likely one at this time, as most signs point toward morning activity overturning the atmosphere.
Remember, a watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather. A warning means that severe weather is imminent or is already occurring and to seek shelter immediately. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group. I will be posting periodic updates there as all of this unfolds.