Texas Storm Watch

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Recurring Cycle Theory

Texas Storm Watch follows the recurring cycle theory, which was first developed by a Kansas City Meteorologist, Gary Lezak, back in the 1990's. Basically, the theory holds that every year a unique weather pattern sets up. He believes that it could have to do with the autumnal equinox, which basically resets the weather pattern. It takes place from early October into mid or late November. Once the cycle is set, this pattern repeats until the next fall. When I say that the pattern repeats, I mean that the same number of upper-level features are in play with each cycle. These upper-level lows, disturbances, ridges, etc. can differ in location and strength depending on the season and other factors. The recurring cycle theory serves two functions for us. The first is that it gives us an idea of when to watch for possible weather-makers. The second is it allows us to compare what the models are forecasting to what we have seen in previous cycles. If the model guidance is in agreement with the recurring cycle theory, it results in higher confidence. To put it simply, it is another helpful tool to take into account. Here is an article earlier this season that shows the connection uses tropical systems as an example: http://texasstormwatch.com/2018/09/tropical-storm-gordon-makes-landfall-in-mississippi.html